Starker on 26/6/2016 at 13:40
The longer uncertainty and indecision prevail, the worse it is for the economy and not only in the UK. People want to know whether their benefits are in jeopardy, whether they will have to look for another job, whether the EU spending in their area will be matched by the government. Saying that everything is actually okay or that there would have been a recession anyway or that it will work out somehow in the future is not really an answer to that. It's political weaseling in its purest form.
demagogue on 27/6/2016 at 01:31
So here's a half-smartarse half-serious question. What's the end game here? Not in terms of the next few years, but what's supposed to be the destiny of the UK that everybody's working towards now (or I guess maybe just England)? In the wake of WWII it was clearly establishing a liberal democratic order in Europe and the world with the UK or Anglo-American alliance leading the way. Then Communism and Decolonization happened and after the dust settled, ok, so then it was just Europe. Then Communism ended and East Europe got invited to (re)join the fold. This Western liberal order and a sphere for it, which was embodied by the EU above all, was sort of always the longterm dream from Churchill on down.
But now what? Clearly the UK isn't interested in global influence or being involved in any order in the world or being at the vanguard of world liberalism. That's the "final nail in coffin of the memory of Empire" part, as I understood it. But then what's the model now? What's the end-game dream? A strongman warlord state pared down to its most ruthless, racially purified nub, like those African dictators that go on and on about national greatness? That's what's its getting ridiculed as with the Mad Max memes floating around. I guess that's part of the histrionics of the losers, having just lost part of (what they want to be part of) their identity, I think. But I haven't interviewed Leave voters or anything, so I'm curious what they're dreaming for the UK with all of this.
To answer on my own homeland's part, I think there's more than a little love for a strongman illberal state in the US these days in ways that IMO are quite foreign to American culture & values, so much so I'm bewildered where it's even coming from in cultural terms. They're using these liberal phrases of freedom and openness in the name of closure and authoritarianism.
Starker on 27/6/2016 at 07:43
Quote Posted by demagogue
To answer on my own homeland's part, I think there's more than a little love for a strongman illberal state in the US these days in ways that IMO are quite foreign to American culture & values, so much so I'm bewildered where it's even coming from in cultural terms. They're using these liberal phrases of freedom and openness in the name of closure and authoritarianism.
"War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength."
Yeah, I don't think anyone knows where UK is headed now, least of all UK itself. The prevailing attitude seems to be towards an isolated nation state that deals with the rest of the world over a comfortably high fence, but I don't think anyone really considers autarky a viable option in today's world.
Boris Johnson, the most likely next PM, says that there will be even closer cultural relations with the EU, access to the single market, an exemption from the free movement, and freedom from EU regulations. In other words, the UK will be a country that retains all the benefits of being in the EU with the added bonus of being able to trade with non-EU countries as it pleases. I don't think even he believes that it is possible, though.
The deal with the EU will be key in this. This is why other countries are in no great rush to do trade deals with the UK. They want to see whether the UK will still have access to the single market. And until it's clear what kind of relationship the UK has with the EU, companies and investors are in no great rush to do business in the UK either. They want to know whether they will have to deal with one set of regulations or two, for example.
And I think this will also set the future course for the UK -- will they strive to get back closer to EU or will they try to build on the Commonwealth as sort of a rival EU or will they try to get closer to the US.
demagogue on 27/6/2016 at 08:14
Yeah I was thinking about the strengthened Anglo-American alliance angle, and while interesting, it'd no doubt get completely ripped apart as the UK going from an equal partner among 28 states in the EU to a glorified 51st state with the US.
Starker on 27/6/2016 at 08:26
"Alas, the storm is come again! My best way is to creep under his gaberdine; there is no other shelter hereabout: misery acquaints a man with strange bed-fellows."
But yeah, I'm not so convinced by it either. Going from being one of the big three in the EU to a junior partner in an US enterprise is probably quite unpalatable.
Vivian on 27/6/2016 at 13:14
So, everyone who thought you understood economics better than the IMF, I hope at the very least this fucking catastrophe has given you a better understanding of your limitations?
SD on 27/6/2016 at 14:16
They don't give a shit about the economic fallout, so long as they can walk along the street without hearing anyone speaking Polish.
scumble on 27/6/2016 at 14:51
The polish workers at a local car wash do a better job than English guys at another. Why should my car suffer?
Seriously, I'm not sure all polish people will suddenly be kicked out. Many local agricultural businesses would fall apart without them. I mean local to me in southern England.
