demagogue on 1/4/2017 at 15:44
Quote Posted by caffeinatedzombeh
What makes you think they would vote Yes now?
The Leave UK vote was bigger than the Remain in EU vote by 7%, which works out to 250,000 people, and they only need 4-5% over the last Scottish independence referendum.
They aren't necessarily the same people of course, some people in that 7% differential are getting double-counted, so it may be less than 250K. But I suspect there's a quite high correlation between Leave UK and Stay in EU, so not too much eaten away from that 7%.
We also need a poll to know the distribution of priority between those two, but without further info I'd assume a normal distribution proportionally weighted to the stay in the EU camp the same as the differential between the two votes. Then it's simple maths. Actually by that napkin maths it'd be right on the line.
But I actually think that assumption (proportionally weighting a normal curve) is too conservative and there'd be more people preferring to stay in the EU over the UK than proportional to the EU Stay vote, closer to the absolute number itself (the full 7% minus whatever we subtracted from above), which only inches farther over the line the more it holds.
Actually I have no idea. I just like poli-sci stats.
caffeinatedzombeh on 1/4/2017 at 16:19
An independent Scotland would have to join the EU the same way anyone else would.
They'd have a significant advantage over many other accession states in terms of regulatory compatibility and that sort of thing but the economic requirements of joining the euro would be somewhat on the scary side. (we're talking cuts to public spending somewhere in the region of the entire budget of NHS Scotland)
Starker on 1/4/2017 at 18:28
This also goes for other stuff like NATO. Scotland would be a new state, basically. Though I'm sure they would be fast-tracked through a lot of it.
nickie on 2/4/2017 at 18:44
Quote Posted by demagogue
The leave UK vote was bigger than the leave EU vote by 7%, which works out to 250,000 people, and they only need 4-5% over the last Scottish independence referendum.
I haven't a clue what you're saying here. :D
The vote against independence (leaving the UK) was 55.3%. The vote against leaving the EU was 62%. I'm pretty sure I'm misunderstanding what you're saying.
But I have now done a bit of reading about my throwaway comment and 'experts' do talk a lot about the finances and how it would be crap for at least a very long while, if viable at all as Zombeh notes. I've also read, here and there, that Sturgeon is probably wrong if she thinks that the pro-EU vote would translate to a pro-independence vote. I don't know either way but if it was me, I wouldn't want to vote on anything until I knew what France and, later this year, Germany were doing.
Such a long time since May '68. Never in a million years would I have thought that France would move so far to the right to even consider Marine Le Pen to be remotely acceptable. To everyone, I'm not trying to be factual or analytical, I just find myself responding emotionally to current events. I remember a kinder time, that's all.
RIP Darcus Howe.
demagogue on 2/4/2017 at 21:03
Sorry yes, I meant the 62% voting Remain (EU). I got my wires crossed and mistyped it. (In my defense it's easy to do that!) 62-55=7ish (6.7% rounding up.) Add some percent of those people to the 45% voting in favor of Scottish Independence, and that's where the extra support comes from to cross the line, which is what the rest of the post is trying to figure out. Ie, that 6.7% is 250K people (not exactly but close), and the Scottish Ind. vote needs 180K people to flip to change the outcome.
Edit. Then all the caveats come in, eg, translating that 7% into 250K people implies they are actual people that actually voted Remain-UK that could flip in a 2nd vote, but that's not necessarily true. The two referenda could have come from rather different pools of people in Scotland so it's not a real set of individuals. But I argued the number may represent a trend that holds for any arbitrary pool of people you select so it's still relevant to a second Scot-Ind. vote.
And we need to know of the potential flippers that follow that trend (ie, want both Remain UK & EU), which they prioritize between Remain-UK and Remain-EU, where I argued you can guesstimate 70% or so would prioritize Remain-EU just based on how priority curves normally look like (because its vote was bigger, indicating a stronger opinion), which is really close to the line. (Ideally we'd want polling to be accurate on these numbers, and it probably exists but I'm going with the vote numbers here just 'cause.)
But then I said this is all just maths, so I don't really know anything. Just an interesting exercise.
Starker on 2/4/2017 at 21:29
Quote Posted by nickie
Such a long time since May '68. Never in a million years would I have thought that France would move so far to the right to even consider Marine Le Pen to be remotely acceptable. To everyone, I'm not trying to be factual or analytical, I just find myself responding emotionally to current events. I remember a kinder time, that's all.
Yeah, it has been pretty odd to see people with giddy nihilism try to tear apart what little European unity has been achieved. You'd think people would have learned at least something from history by now.
nickie on 4/4/2017 at 17:20
Thanks, dema, I can never be entirely sure that I'm understanding what I'm reading.
I suspect the presence of rose-coloured glasses, Starker, although (
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/04/my-generation-free-brexit-voting-betraying-young) Polly Toynbee says a lot of it for me. So much we take for granted now.
Quote:
Younger people could be wishing we of the Who generation really had all died before we got old. What’s become of us? We who won all those freedoms on sex, contraception, abortion, gay rights, divorce, who saw the start of women’s lib, an end to censorship, capital and corporal punishment, who threw off hats, gloves and conventions to wear and think what we liked? But no doubt many of my generation never bought into what seemed like the spirit of the age: abolishing capital punishment was never popular.
I was a bit shocked to read:
Quote:
Brexiters are 53% for bringing back the rope (supported by just 20% of remainers). Bring back beating in schools, say 42% of Brexiters (against just 14% of remainers). Three times more Brexiters than remainers would bring back incandescent lightbulbs, blue passports, imperial weights and measures and pre-decimal currency – which would fox anyone under 55.
Renzatic on 4/4/2017 at 17:31
Pre-decimal currency? Are you talking about a throwback to the shillings and pence days, where everything was divvied up by fractions of a pound?
demagogue on 4/4/2017 at 21:21
A farthing for your thoughts. :p
caffeinatedzombeh on 4/4/2017 at 21:31
Quote Posted by nickie
I was a bit shocked to read:
That yougov polls are as informative and useful as ever?
