caffeinatedzombeh on 28/2/2019 at 18:04
Quote Posted by Starker
"It's a bit more profitable" is much less of a motivating factor for Japanese businesses than existing relationships and long-term planning. The EU is still the biggest market in the world and making cars is a long cycle business, not to mention that such a move costs a lot of money.
As I said, there are certainly other reasons behind the move (such as electric cars and global overcapacity and whatnot), but I'd go as far as to say that Brexit is
the motivating event for the decision. And why would they wait out the chaos? Chaos and sudden rule changes are devastating for businesses.
Tariffs are fairly simple, as far as trade barriers go. The real clincher are the regulatory barriers. The one huge advantage that the single market has is that they have worked very hard to eliminate as much of the regulatory barriers as possible. Now that the UK is no longer going to be a part of the single market, that is going to disrupt Honda's manufacturing at the UK to a degree that's pretty much a death blow:
If you say so, I'm still unconvinced that a factory that makes cars sold all over the world built to varying regulations who's chief export market is the well known EU member on the other side of the atlantic with the orange shouty president is being closed mainly because the country it happens to be in will have left the EU two years before it shuts.
There are plenty of real issues caused by brexit in and of itself and the uncertainty caused by the incompetence at all levels of the UK's government without needing to blame it for things that are almost entirely unrelated.
Medlar on 28/2/2019 at 19:21
So, does this mean we get the Boris bus out again or a repeat of Geldof vs Farrage on the Thames of will it get even worse?
Pyrian on 28/2/2019 at 19:55
Betting on "even worse".
Gray on 28/2/2019 at 22:32
Speaking as a European, living in Scotland, there is only one outcome that will not stab me in several places and slowly choke me to death. That is to revoke article 50 and remain. To me, personally, it means everything, but to this country, I did not in my wildest nightmares expect your average country retard to vote against their own interest and kill their own employer. "Oh, we hate the brown people." But it's not them that this issue is about, so you're already wrong in two different ways. We NEED immigrants to keep this country running, because apparently Britons are too fat, lazy and stupid to do any actual work.
I am so angry. Fuming. I never knew Britons were this retarded.
If you don't watch the news at least twice a week, don't fucking vote. You are uninformed and have not earned the privilege. Keep your racist shit to yourself, and don't ruin it for the rest of us.
Starker on 1/3/2019 at 01:09
Quote Posted by caffeinatedzombeh
If you say so, I'm still unconvinced that a factory that makes cars sold all over the world built to varying regulations who's chief export market is the well known EU member on the other side of the atlantic with the orange shouty president is being closed mainly because the country it happens to be in will have left the EU two years before it shuts.
There are plenty of real issues caused by brexit in and of itself and the uncertainty caused by the incompetence at all levels of the UK's government without needing to blame it for things that are almost entirely unrelated.
Well, you say it's unrelated, because the plant was already struggling and I say it's because the plant was already struggling that Brexit is the final straw. With the UK being in the EU, they have been able to take advantage of free and frictionless trade and EU's trade agreements and a large pool of skilled workforce (apparently, 20% of the people working at the plant were EU nationals). After Brexit (at least the way it's shaping up), they will have to deal with customs, supply problems, higher costs, tariffs, etc. Even one more set of regulations really does matter, if you've already streamlined your process as far as you possibly can. And even if they currently sell half of their cars to the country with the orange shouty president, they still rely on EU supply chains to a degree.
I don't think people really appreciate just how much easier the EU's four freedoms, the cornerstone of frictionless trade, make things. It's more than just hassle-free customs, it's also things like being able to have your shipments insured by a EU-wide recognised policy.
And it's not just Honda that's going to be impacted. BMW, for example, (
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-bmw/bmw-executive-says-would-shut-uk-plants-if-brexit-hits-supply-chain-idUKKBN1JL23K) gets 90% of their parts from the EU to make its cars in the UK.
heywood on 1/3/2019 at 16:33
Honda has also been reducing car production here in the US, and they just announced they are closing another Civic plant in Turkey. So it's not just Swindon. Have you checked sales of cars lately? All of the major auto manufacturers are reducing production of their cars because of oversupply. Only SUVs/CUVs, and trucks are selling well. And nearly all of them are idling or closing plants.
Honda has seen declining sales in Europe for the last 10 years. They now have less than 1% market share. Europe isn't a priority for them, and they typically launch cars later in Europe than anywhere else. They decided not to even offer their new Accord in Europe. The Swindon plant used to make a European-specific version of the Civic. But the 10th generation Civic is a global platform with a global supply chain. The Swindon plant now makes the hatchback version for the global market. Honda sells about 8x as many Civics in the US as they do in the EU, and about 5x as many Civics in China. So the vast majority of Civics produced in Swindon aren't even destined for the European market.
Honda says they will move production of Civic hatchbacks for the North American market to the US. Presumably Civic hatchbacks for the Chinese market will be produced in China. Now that there is no longer a tariff for importing Japanese made cars to the EU, Honda will build EU market Civics in Japan.
None of this has anything to do with Brexit. Brexit hasn't even happened yet. If they really couldn't tolerate uncertainty over the outcome of Brexit, why would they wait it out for 2.5 years and then pre-emptively bail just one month before Brexit is (hopefully) resolved? Especially when it costs a lot of money to close a plant. Especially when production is being moved someplace further removed from the EU than a post-Brexit UK (which looks like it will be in a customs union with the EU and share common regulations).
Starker on 2/3/2019 at 00:21
Have I checked the sales? Let me just quote myself:
"As I said, there are certainly other reasons behind the move (such as electric cars and global overcapacity and whatnot)"
Brexit hasn't happened yet, but Honda hasn't moved yet either. They said they will by 2021. Closing a plant isn't just a matter of packing your bags and you're done, get out tomorrow. And you can't plan for Brexit if you haven't the foggiest idea what the outcome will be and you can't stay in limbo forever. Especially if waiting things out looks increasingly like a death-blow.
You say that the UK will be in a customs union with the EU and share common regulations, but when will that happen? It might happen sooner if Corbyn gets his way, but will he? And if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal, what then? And even a customs union might only play a minor part of resolving border delays or dealing with single market issues or things like the free movement of UK drivers within the EU. It has been proven time and time again over the past three years that UK aligning itself with the EU to the degree of making the single market work for them is going to be extremely unpalatable, if not completely unacceptable, for half of the country (though it would be one of the least bad outcomes, IMO).
Yes, the plant was struggling, and yes, the global situation was not in its favour, and yes, they had been focusing more on the US and Japanese markets, but they were also planning to start producing new Civic models in Swindon from 2020 before the Brexit vote happened. Honda is stopping their Civic production in Turkey as part of the restructuring, but they do intend to continue their business operations there, from what I've read. Why UK, then, and why now? For years, Honda has sought to keep the Swindon plant going. Until now.
Not to mention that as recently as this January they were still seeking reassurances that the government would "deliver a clear, legally certain path forward to avoiding no deal".
heywood on 2/3/2019 at 13:21
It's easy to blame every misfortunate thing that happens to the UK on Brexit.
In this case, I'm going with Occam's razor. It takes too much stretching and some suspension of logic to tie this to Brexit when there are more straightforward reasons that explain the closure and the timing of it.
Starker on 2/3/2019 at 19:21
Exactly. Hence Brexit (especially the increasingly likely no-deal version) must have been the final straw, since they were in no rush to close the plant even during the recession and, in contrary, were seeking ways to keep it open. And they were looking for reassurances from the UK government up until January.
And the dangers that they have outlined are very real, not imaginary. Japanese auto manufacturers are famous for their extremely lean production, optimised to the point that they only keep parts on hand for only a few hours of production. Any delays at the border are going to be catastrophic. Plus there's the prospect of tariffs where there previously were none (automatic 10% in case of no deal), a massive increase in paperwork, more regulations, a serious impact to the UK and EU economy, and potentially a whole host of other problems nobody can really even predict yet. And all of this is exacerbating the already dire global situation.
Starker on 14/3/2019 at 10:25
What with May's deal having been voted down for the second time and the UK parliament narrowly voting against a no-deal Brexit and all, you really can't say that the MPs don't represent the people anymore. If anything, they are just as split as the British people are.
Anyway, while I was looking around for Brexit news I happened upon a video where someone takes apart Nigel Farage's arguments why the UK left the EU (which hasn't actually happened yet), most notably the idea of the UK regaining its sovereignty.
[video=youtube;I_HdqYCDcVE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_HdqYCDcVE[/video]