N'Al on 18/3/2019 at 11:51
We all know the current agreement's been written in Wingdings.
Thirith on 18/3/2019 at 11:55
Or indeed:
Quote:
We all know the current agreement's been written in, by and for Wingdings.
Starker on 19/3/2019 at 02:53
Quote Posted by demagogue
I read even if they vote in favour of May's plan they'll still need an extension to put it into operation.
Yeah, it's now apparently "physically impossible" to get May's plan through by the 29th.
Funnily enough, my opinion of May has gone slightly up with this whole debacle. At least she has had more balls than Cameron, even if it's a particularly low bar to pass. And it's not like there are any really good options out there. To let a Tory MP sum it up:
[video=youtube;UfbwXvbM4_A]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfbwXvbM4_A[/video]
Also, (
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47602746) a BBC article had this nice flowchart:
Inline Image:
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/8D7E/production/_106022263_brexit_flowchart_article_50_v3_640-nc.pngheywood on 19/3/2019 at 13:39
I read the Speaker has now blocked a re-vote on the current deal, and I guess the ball is now in the EU's court. No extension = no deal Brexit, if that's what they really want, which seems unlikely.
I think this deserves to go back to the people, either in a referendum or new elections. I think May's deal should be put to a referendum, and when it fails, revoke Article 50, step down, and call a new general election. Let the next government have a fresh shot rather than inheriting a crisis and deadline left over from the May government. Of course, that will never happen.
I would be happy to see the EU members give the UK a more or less indefinite extension, but avoid renegotiation with any UK government whose position isn't backed by a majority, i.e. don't make a new deal unless you are certain the Parliament or people will support it. Using artificial deadlines and brinksmanship is a risky way to decide the future of the EU, and it isn't working.
Also, I think there's a possibility that the EU could just wait out the current wave of nationalism. Even though the UK voted for Brexit, there is no Brexit option that will pass by majority, and if you put all the options on the table, a plurality would vote to remain. Why force the UK to act when doing nothing keep the status quo that you want?
Thirith on 19/3/2019 at 14:03
I disagree with a number of things in your post, heywood.
1) The ball is not just in the EU's court. It's also for May to renegotiate and find a way of substantially changing her deal. She won't find one, but in part that's because of the red lines she's established for herself.
2) The EU, its countries and the various companies in the EU are also interested in some kind of decision, so they can adapt to it. Not knowing what will happen nor when isn't good for anyone, and the EU is wasting a hell of a lot of time with the UK and the government's shambolic handling of Brexit.
3) The more the EU acts in ways that allow nationalists to lay all blame at its feet, the longer it'll take for the current wave of nationalism to decrease again. Brexit feeds nationalism in other European countries. While the EU is holding most cards with respect to the actual negotiations, they also have to think of their wider audience.
4) If there was to be a second referendum (which I very much hope, and I think there's a very strong case for it), it couldn't present Brexit A, Brexit B, Brexit C and Remain as a single vote, because that would (and quite rightly) be seen as making even more of a joke of democracy, which in turn would feed all the anti-EU, anti-government sentiment even more. It'd have to be some kind of two-stage vote, e.g. Leave or Remain --> if Leave, May's deal or no deal? And while I hope that such a vote would end up in favour of Remain, I'm by no means certain that it actually would.
WingedKagouti on 19/3/2019 at 14:22
Quote Posted by heywood
I read the Speaker has now blocked a re-vote on the current deal, and I guess the ball is now in the EU's court. No extension = no deal Brexit, if that's what they really want, which seems unlikely.
I found someone talking about how the various EU nations would like to see Brexit play out:
(
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odgegLM0dHU)
(
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dElHvAYoKk)
(
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JG_jqQojAFM)
No Deal is overall very much not preferred, but some nations seem to be fine with using it as a threat and/or secondary option if the UK government & parliament doesn't get their shit together.
Nicker on 19/3/2019 at 20:26
If Brexit goes through, kiss the Irish truce goodbye.
heywood on 19/3/2019 at 22:01
I agree that a second referendum is warranted, and I agree that it shouldn't be a Chinese dinner menu of multiple options of which none would win a majority. But I don't think it should repeat the simplistic choice of remain or leave either. The "leave" option has to be a real concrete option, otherwise you're repeating the mistake of the first referendum, which offered people the choice between a known quantity (remain) and whatever idealized outcome they could dream up (leave). If there is a second referendum, it shouldn't be an opinion poll, it should be a real choice. It would be better to see May's deal put to a simple up or down popular vote. If it fails, then her government has failed and she steps down and calls new elections.
One point on which I disagree with many people is over deadlines. I get that a lot of people just want the drama to be over, but setting artificial deadlines for an agreement empowers the hard liners on both sides who want to play the brinksmanship game.
Europeans who support the EU and are afraid of nationalism shouldn't be so quick to get rid of the UK. I think they may cut off their nose in spite of their face. Some on the EU side seem to be hoping for a hard Brexit after which an independent UK suffers badly, but what if it doesn't? What if a no-deal Brexit happens and the bureaucrats do their jobs and sort out the details such that there is no immediate shock? I'm sure there will be significant long term consequences, but if there's no overnight disaster then Eurosceptics elsewhere will be emboldened and doom sayers will be discredited.
Pyrian on 19/3/2019 at 23:14
Maybe it's time the UK experienced ranked-choice voting.
demagogue on 20/3/2019 at 05:00
Pushing a rapid deadline is recipe for disaster. I've been reading up on the history of the Israel-Palestine conflict and the India-Pakistan partition, and both of them are among the most harrowing and intractable political problems in the world today, and both of them have their direct genesis in a British bureaucrat pushing for a quick deadline to wash their hands of it as soon as possible, hoping the brinkmanship tactic would get everyone to just agree & work everything out, to disastrous consequences.
I mean, in some sense it'd only be karma for the UK to screw itself over as royally and permanently as it has other countries, but that's really not in anyone's best interest and somebody needs to be an adult in the room to slow things down and do it properly, since this decision will have consequences that will last for a long time.
Edit: Alright, I mischaracterized the British role in the 1948 Arab-Israel War. Conflict had already broken out from the breakdown of the partition plan, and the UK was basically completely sidelined by the time of their withdrawal and under great domestic political pressure to withdrawal. They might not have had much choice to handle things otherwise. I really don't know the history well enough to say though. In the India-Pakistan Partition case though, according to a lot of sources the sped up deadline wasn't necessary at all and definitely exacerbated the situation.
Edit2: Does anyone else get sucked into deep wells reading history? We're in the midst of history being made, where people are going to be looking back some day and wondering why these things had to happen, and we have all this past history as fodder to learn from, and still it's like watching a freight train approaching the terminus without hitting the breaks yet, and what can you do to stop it at this point...
