demagogue on 12/2/2011 at 00:34
I see. I agree those are things to be concerned about, but those are different concerns than constitutional issues.
What's important now IMO is: are we talking about a liberal democracy, an illiberal democracy, a military dictatorship, or a theocracy?
Once you cross that bridge, then you get into the details of this or that policy, which Egypt will probably have issues with for a while to come, like other new democracies.
On that, though, there's always a chicken-egg tension between laws and popular support when countries are liberalizing, i.e., which comes first, liberal law or popular support? Looking at history, sometimes the law comes first and social change follows; sometimes social change comes first then the law follows; and sometimes one happens but not the other for a long time. It all depends on the situation. But I think that's how to look at those concerns.
zombe on 12/2/2011 at 15:05
Quote Posted by demagogue
We'll have to see how things develop. But the religious population is only 20-30%, and even at the height of protests they weren't pushing for a theocracy. I heard religious people and groups like the Muslim Brotherhood don't want to become like Iran. And wanting religion part of government != theocracy.
Inline Image:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/24/Muslim_Brotherhood_logo.pngQur'an at the top + swords + a rather worrisome Qur'an reference at the bottom (just in case the swords were not enough) = nothing good will come from them. Also (afaik) their current PR "sensibility" spell is seen as a complete farce everywhere. Theocracy is pretty much exactly what they want.
Queue on 12/2/2011 at 15:23
Quote Posted by Nuth
The results that caused me the most concern were that 82% of Muslim Egyptians support stoning to death people who commit adultery, 77% are for whipping/cutting off hands for theft, and 84% support death for people who leave Islam. That, and that of the Muslims who see a struggle between Modernity and Fundamentalism, 59% identify with the fundamentalists as compared to 27% who identify with modernizers.
83% of Americans identify themselves as Christian...and 64% to 69% of Americans support the death penalty. It's the same "eye for an eye" mentality found in two different religions who worship, essentially, the same God.
demagogue on 12/2/2011 at 16:00
@zombe, your argument is a seal?
You can do better than that.
- What % are we talking about;
- What makes it (or could make it) a monolithic movement as opposed to fragmented opinions & rhetoric;
- What's a realistic scenario for ultra-religious getting initiative from the fiercely secular military (not the wishful thinking, or wishful worrying scenario);
- What other model fits with the political situation here: Iran 1979, Iraq 2004, Turkey, Afghanistan 2003, Pakistan, Indonesia, Algeria 1960s or 2000s... and why, or how is Egypt unique with specific reference to other models;
- What about the protest movement itself being secular, and the large % that doesn't want a turn to theocracy, and the widespread disgust with the Iran-model (even by the religious)?
You don't have to actually answer these. But I don't want to read knee-jerk impressions, but hard facts and real social models that answer these kinds of questions.
Ultra-religious are a challenge for every nascent democracy, but their place in the political situation differs greatly depending on the circumstances of each country. And I want to know about the relevant circumstances in Egypt.
zombe on 12/2/2011 at 20:40
Little background relevant to my reply:
When i first heard about the events in Egypt i was a bit appalled of my level of ignorance in relation to that part of the world (i did not even know that it was essentially a dictatorship there). So, i dug around and - well, you won't get much knowledgeable in just a few days. I think i got even more questions now than when i started. Also, i am pretty sure that what i found is biased (probably skewed and definitely partial view) - however, i am confident about the nature of the "Muslim Brotherhood".
Now to the quote: I think i quoted you a bit badly - i'l try to amend to lessen confusion. I did not mean to assess the probability of religious nuts rising to power - just to underline that "Muslim Brotherhood" ARE the nuts (ie. your statement, which i agree with, that "religion part of government != theocracy" does not work well with "Muslim Brotherhood" as an example :p).
Your questions, as my background-info-bit might suggest, is the stuff i also would like some reputable/confirmable answers.
fwiw, my probably ill-informed guess so far is that the risks are actually very-remote (no major shifts towards theocracy).
demagogue on 12/2/2011 at 21:19
On my part too, I don't want to give the impression that I don't understand there are real extremists out there that would love nothing more than an Iranian-style harsh Islamic authoritarian state and are probably ready to fight for it in the coming months. (And I've read about Iranian meddling and covert operations under Mubarak; I can only imagine there will be much more of it now.)
I don't know if everyone in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is at that level -- I'm hearing mixed reports in the media; they've been a banned group for a long time, so history or rhetoric maybe isn't the best guide -- but I think most everyone at that level is either associated with the MB or sympathetic with it. So that's something. And I understand it's still the most organized opposition outside the old-guard. So there's definitely concern there. And even if we're not talking about a full-fledged theocracy, that element is still there and will make it a bumpy road whichever way Egypt goes.
For the Egyptian people that want a proper democracy, they should think hard about how to deal with it and figure out a good way to either moderate them or contain them.
