demagogue on 17/11/2012 at 11:17

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From what I've read, Hamas has quite a bit of control over the rockets, at least in recent history. They're also rather strategic, despite popular opinion. They start lobbing them when they feel they can squeeze concessions from them, and stop them when they need to.

I've read that the two limited-violence intifadas (bricks instead of guns) were the most effective practically, and Palestinians got the biggest concessions from Israel in those periods... But I guess the reason (as I understood it) it's not much of an option now is that it's just good for the occupied territory (West Bank) and not much use for Gaza. It was part of the reason Israel wanted to at least get out of Gaza in the first place.

Which brings up the next point that part of the violence is an internal Palestinian political move... Hamas has to continue to justify its mandate over Fatah, and rockets are one of the few bargaining chips it maybe feels it has, but it's sending a message as much to other Palestinians as Israel (from whom I'm guessing they've practically signed off on ever expecting anything). This isn't "the Palestinians" operating here; this is Hamas acting on behalf of the Palestinian cause to keep its mandate. Then again, the new Islamist Egypt regime adds a new wildcard, so I bet that's part of it too; shaking the regional balance to see if anything might shake out for them.

demagogue on 17/11/2012 at 11:46

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Well it means, for one thing, Israel is going to be loathe to demobilize & pull out of the West Bank. No way they'll get the political will for it without some big change. They'll just assume rockets will pour in from Iran -> Iraq -> Jordan -> West Bank, now farting distance from Jerusalem and the heartland (probably rightly depending on how much control Fatah can have)... Which actually might suit Hamas's interest in marginalizing Fatah. We're just increasing their incentive to keep firing rockets here. And Israel isn't in any rush to reoccupy Gaza either, after all the trauma it took to pull out the first time.

You don't have to sympathize with Palestinians to look at their incentives honestly. They're thinking if there hadn't been violence ratcheting up pressure, Ireland, SE Asia, and half of Africa would still be occupied, and they're looking at the Arab Spring going on around them... The non-violent track never worked out for them. So what possible incentive do they have to peacefully negotiate without the keeping up the pressure? The only good news they *ever* get is when Israel reacts disproportionally & gets world opinion against them. If you want people to demobilize, disarm & reintegrate (DDR), you have to give them a process that gets them there & an incentive to take it (a belief it will work).

Come on, this is international politics. It's hardball realism. There's no place for crybaby pussies and oh what about my feelings or some shit that happened 70 or 2000 years ago. There's motivations & consequences. You want the rockets to stop, you have to give them a reason to stop (edit: or an internal path to vet & DDR them; but that's something Palestinians have to do internally for it to actually work, and they need the mandate to do it). You want the Israelis to turn over land, they have to feel they'll stay secure in the new regime. Or you just sit on your ass and tolerate the status quo for another century, with rockets firing every year and Israel bombarding the place ad infinitum. Meeting those two tasks is the only thing that matters now. The rest of all of this, who's historically in the right or wrong, is pointless posturing & bickering that has no other purpose than to delay the way out to normalization IMO.

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Edit: (www.nytimes.com/2012/11/17/world/middleeast/israel-sticks-to-tough-approach-in-conflict-with-hamas.html) News on Isr side. (www.nytimes.com/2012/11/17/world/middleeast/in-gaza-tragic-result-for-misplaced-hopes-of-cease-fire.html) News on Pal side. We're in a pessimistic period where there's a massive hump to get over the status quo anyway, definitely on the Israeli side ("periodically cutting the grass" is apparently the working strategy for the indefinite future). Not sure what Fatah could do to get its own house in order to promise security & be able to keep its pledge... Palestinians look awfully splintered, especially in Gaza. Or some other outside Arab country, or the US, taking it on as a project & getting some Palestinian initiative with them, maybe? Or the Gazans turn out Hamas (not sure about that). But things like that the only place I see potential for some wiggle room hopefully in the future. Not now with the Arab world in its own upheavals & unbalance though. Unfortunately.

Edit2: At the end of that article, it leaves open Hamas doing something not done since Lebanon (sort of), holding out long enough & making it costly enough the Israeli public itself actually gets disgusted with the engagement and finds their own way to disengage... if this goes on for months & months. That would be something new, but I'm not sure about that happening either. Not sure a more friendly Egypt & a few new rockets would make this different from 2009... but I guess we'll see.

SubJeff on 17/11/2012 at 18:26

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I think Israel would do it first. But do you think they care? Do suicide bombers care that they will die? There is a brand of nutjob out there that does not value life, even their own, or has such a twisted view of things as to be the same as someone who doesn't value life.

demagogue on 18/11/2012 at 05:48

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I'm not as fatalist as some of you are sounding like, I guess because I've been working in developing countries, and there are massive generation gaps. Even when things "stay the same", things are different. It was as recently as 2006 just before the elections that things were on a much better track... And Hamas winning really set the whole thing back. In retrospect they should have held off on elections.

Their constitution is pretty abysmal on rights, especially women's rights (no right to get an education or work). They're in little position to negotiate with Israel on anything; it has to be done through proxy and even that isn't working (as Egypt's new PM just showed). And even if they could, it's hard to trust them responsibly governing and not just being a entry-point for Iranian missiles. So thinking constructively, I think the way forward is to either marginalize them & favor Fatah or at least encourage them to moderate & go for non-violent resistance which actually has some influence.

I feel like somebody should give them a history lesson on independence movements in the Gandhi line that have actually worked & let them take notes. They'd get more world sympathy if Israel were faced with rock-throwing and sit-ins; it's not something you can send tanks & F-16s in to break. But we're talking about people that are already 3rd generation growing up in refugee camps. Their whole world is colored by that.

Tocky on 18/11/2012 at 06:44

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But the people voted Hamas in so a majority in Gaza don't want peace either. Isreal would love to get rid of them but what if others are just voted back in? Everytime I think about the situation it seems more hopeless. More information only makes it moreso.