Mr. K. on 22/3/2011 at 08:53
I really don't see nuclear as cheap as it's being sold to us. In France they get 75% of their electricity from nuclear sources, yet they don't have very cheap electricity (actually, the residential cost is a little higher than the mean for the rest of the union). And this is just the cost in the electricity bill.
Source: (
www.energy.eu)
On the other hand, in Denmark they generate over 20% of their energy from wind farms, and solar is another 20% I think. They also have the most expensive electricity bill (over 2x the mean price), but they also are the only country that does not heavily depend on energy imports. Actually, they are a net exporter of energy (the only country that does so un the EU). In some places within Denmark, they are 100% reliant on renewable energy (some island, I don't remember the name).
To me, energy independence far outweights the economic costs of electricity (within reason), both in a local and in a general scale. Also, nuclear does not seem to result in consumer savings.
heywood on 22/3/2011 at 11:10
Cost is not nuclear's strength, that's for sure.
Like you, I'm willing to pay to move towards energy independence, along with eliminating pollution from dirty old coal plants and reducing CO2 emissions.
A massive investment in renewable sources combined with large scale pumped hydro storage plants and a more efficient distribution grid sounds to me like an ideal combination, but the costs are huge and there will be protracted regulatory, legislative, and legal battles over every pumped hydro and geothermal site and most wind farms, just as there is with nuclear plants. So it's more fantasy than reality.
I think the reality is we have to push forward on all fronts, including nuclear, because it's going to require a mixed solution.
Kolya on 22/3/2011 at 12:41
Quote Posted by heywood
Are you saying they should be designed for zero risk under every conceivable natural disaster regardless of how unlikely? That's pathological. It's also not a standard that's applied to other energy sources which have proven far more destructive than nuclear.
Are you saying that the same or lower security standards should be applied to nuclear energy as to those other energy sources then?
In my opinion the consequences of a nuclear disaster are too devastating for humans to deal with the tech safely enough. Be it due to so called "human error", corruption, or natural disasters.
Additionally the time scale of nuclear technology is too long for the human attention span. Whole countries can change, be attacked, become broke, not care any more. You probably don't believe that things could change so dramatically in future where you live, that you couldn't handle the safety requirements in the long term.
I've seen the world change rapidly and profoundly and don't believe you can predict the future. In eastern Europe old reactors are rotting without appropriately trained staff. Let alone nuclear waste disposal sites that will require our attention and the attention of our children and grandchildren and grand-grandchildren. I doubt they'll thank us.
I haven't advocated oil or coal as alternative energy sources. I named renewables such as sun, wind, water and geothermal energy as energy sources and natural gas as a bridging source until we can completely rely on these.
Maybe it's just your polemic style, but if Chernobyl and Fukushima and this lengthy discussion with all the stats and facts, boil down to an "irrational phobia" for you, then further arguing is a pointless task.
st.patrick on 22/3/2011 at 13:19
Quote Posted by heywood
In the early 20th century, the US had thriving passenger railroads that serviced the whole country, but they've been in decline for a long time now. I don't want to get into all the reasons why, but the simple answer is that other transportation options became cheaper, faster, more convenient, and/or more reliable. The only thing that could change the tide back in favor of passenger rail now is a massive increase in the price of oil.
The principal reason why railroads haven't been as cost-effective as individual means of transport is because the externalities such as emissions aren't calculated in the total cost. In other words, a car driver pays proportionally less towards mitigating the environmental damage caused by the car than the train operator.
heywood on 23/3/2011 at 00:22
I think that living during the cold war with the threat of nuclear annihilation hanging over our heads introduced an innate fear of anything nuclear into our culture. I call it a phobia because there is an element of conditioned fear response regardless of whether there is any real danger. I grew up in the 1980s and radioactivity signs still tend to catch my attention like no other warning sign does. I'm sure others of my generation or older can relate, not sure about younger people though. It becomes irrational when we start letting that disproportional response to nuclear danger override the facts & hard data in our energy policy decision making.
I agree with you about the long term plant maintenance, decommissioning, and waste storage issues. These are problems that have to be worked regardless of whether new nuclear plants are built. I'm frustrated that they are being blocked and I suspect there are shortsighted people who prefer they don't get solved in order to retain the argument against nuclear power.
And I know you haven't advocated coal or oil as alternative sources. However, Germany's closure of its nuclear plants will likely increase reliance on coal and oil in the near term. It's not like Germans are suddenly going to start using 50 TWhr per year less energy as a result of the plant closures.
My main point was that the level of acceptable risk should be in proportion to the harm. We have a half century of experience with nuclear power now and the numbers say the consequences of a nuclear disaster are not too devastating for humans to deal with. On the scale of disasters, nuclear accidents are way down the list. It's not like there's a thermonuclear bomb inside each plant ready to go off if the wrong things happen.
When a record flood caused the Banqiao Dam to burst in 1975 taking out 7 towns and killing up to 230000 people, the reaction was mostly to chalk it up to an unfortunate act of mother nature and get on with life. It did not cause a major rethinking of hydro power. Same for the scores of other dam breaks that have occurred, including one in Fukushima prefecture that burst as a result of the earthquake. And over the last 20 years in the US, there have been natural gas explosions every year or two, some which have leveled whole city blocks. People seem to just shrug them off and they drop out of the news after a day or two. In light of all the harm caused by other sources of energy, what justifies calling nuclear energy too unsafe for use?
Martin Karne on 23/3/2011 at 02:04
I believe a small problem which hasn't resulted in a severe leak like in Chernobyl shouldn't be a base for rushing in a decision. Nuclear is rater safe if designed with responsibility and care.
Even if I don't get in my mind how in the herpes someone would build nuclear plants galore in a seismic country like Japan.
Or building a subway in Los Angeles, California (someone has to explain this particular one to me mmk?).
Dia on 23/3/2011 at 12:32
Quote Posted by Martin Karne
how in the herpes someone would build nuclear plants galore in a seismic country like Japan.
Or building a subway in Los Angeles, California (someone has to explain this particular one to me mmk?).
Right up there with why do people build homes on bluffs in areas prone to mudslides?
Re: Fukushima reactors
Adding to its woes: The plant was holding more uranium that it was designed to handle, and it had missed safety checks. ((
http://search.yahoo.com/search?cs=bz&p=Fukushima+reactors&fr=fp-tts-352&fr2=ps))
Koki on 23/3/2011 at 13:26
Quote Posted by Martin Karne
Even if I don't get in my mind how in the herpes someone would build nuclear plants galore in a seismic country like Japan.
The reactors were perfectly fine after the earthquake. They all shut down automatically and though the power plant lost power(derp) the emergency diesel generators kicked in to take care of the cooling. Everything was textbook untill the tsunami shitwave hit the fan.
So I guess the question that comes to mind is, does no one in Japan realize that any earthquake that doesn't hit the mainland directly will cause a tsunami? Why did they build a nuclear power plant on the shoreline and not take precautions against a tsunami? How the hell there can be a death toll of twenty thousand if it took the wave twenty minutes to reach the coastline? What were they doing in these twenty minutes? It's not like high ground in Japan is particularly hard to find.
Yakoob on 23/3/2011 at 21:26
Koki needs to be the president of the world if he can evacuate 20,000 people from several cities in a 20 minute time period.
catbarf on 23/3/2011 at 21:27
Quote Posted by Koki
How the hell there can be a death toll of twenty thousand if it took the wave twenty minutes to reach the coastline? What were they doing in these twenty minutes? It's not like high ground in Japan is particularly hard to find.
Are you saying twenty minutes is enough time to get the word out to everyone in a coastal city and then evacuate it? Seriously?
edit: dammit yakoob