SD on 22/10/2012 at 21:07
This is... I don't even...
(
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20025626)
Quote:
Six Italian scientists and an ex-government official have been sentenced to six years in prison over the 2009 deadly earthquake in L'Aquila.
A regional court found them guilty of multiple manslaughter.
Prosecutors said the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake, while the defence maintained there was no way to predict major quakes.
The 6.3 magnitude quake devastated the city and killed 309 people.
Many smaller tremors had rattled the area in the months before the quake that destroyed much of the historic centre.
Kolya on 22/10/2012 at 21:21
From the article it's a bit hard to tell what these experts said exactly and what they were really accused of.
Quote:
But the authorities who pursued the seven defendants stressed that the case was never about the power of prediction - it was about what was interpreted to be an inadequate characterisation of the risks; of being misleadingly reassuring about the dangers that faced their city.
So if the experts said beforehand:
"Even if a 6-7 quake happens, the city is completely safe." Would that change the game? Somewhat I guess.
Sulphur on 22/10/2012 at 21:22
'We told them a little white lie to make them feel better, and when it turned out we didn't really know what the fuck, they turned on us and blamed us for it.'
Poetic justice?
A victory for the proletariat?
Proof that fucking with causality is a bad thing? ("If they hadn't fed us that crap, we wouldn't have had as many casualties.")
Proof that people are fucking stupid?
We might as well use a thinly veiled argument to blame an act of god on these pompous shitstains, because SOMEONE'S GOT TO PAY FOR IT...?
Fucking fuck the world is ending it's all going to hell in a handbasket?
The potential for skilfully deployed argumentation technique and philosophical implications are enormous in this one.
SubJeff on 22/10/2012 at 21:39
It doesn't matter what they said.
No one can predict the future.
This is not an issue of evaluating the risks. No one predicted how bad the Boxing Day tsunami would be, nor the recent Japanese tsunami. You can't because it's nature.
Might as well sue the weatherman because it's not as sunny as he predicted.
Welcome to the new Dark Age.
But then it is Italy so...
Phatose on 22/10/2012 at 22:15
And you know, there was another seismologist who did predict the earthquake. He was called an alarmist, forced to take his data off the net, and reported to police for causing fear among the populace.
I suspect the two are closely related. In particular, I imagine there is a powerful politician who instructed these guys to give those reassuring statements after the first guy, and he's ensured they're going down to cover his own ass.
Either way, from now on Italians can expect a lot of 'No Data Available' from their local seismologists.
And it looks like the good ol' USA finally has a contender for the title of "Least scientifically literate population in a first world nation"
Neb on 22/10/2012 at 22:42
This really reminds me of Blakley's law of public alert systems:
Quote:
"Every public alert system's status indicator rises until it reaches its disaster imminent setting and remains at that setting until it is retired from service." It's easy to see why Blakley's law holds: if something terrible happens and the alert status didn't predict it, the keepers of the alert status will be blamed for not preparing us for the disaster. Setting the alert status to "Disaster imminent" when no disaster is likely costs the public some money and mental health, but it doesn't hurt them in other ways. On the other hand, setting the alert status to "Don't worry, be happy" just before a disaster does happen is the worst case for everyone - nobody prepares for the disaster, and the people in power lose their jobs for failing to prevent or prepare for the crisis.
This is why public alert systems are silly; for political reasons they always tell people to be afraid, but most of the time nothing bad happens so people develop distrust and contempt for the alert system and its operators over time.
(
http://notabob.blogspot.co.uk/2009/05/porkalypse-blakleys-law-and-who.html)
Vasquez on 23/10/2012 at 03:27
Quote Posted by Phatose
And you know, there was another seismologist who did predict the earthquake. He was called an alarmist, forced to take his data off the net, and reported to police for causing fear among the populace.
Yeah, I vaguely remember even Berlusconi shushed this guy.
Given the history of the area, I can't understand why people didn't use their common sense and leave anyway when the small rumblings started to escalate. I couldn't find what the scientists had said
exactly, but if they really had assured there's nothing to worry about, I don't think they were being terribly scientific either.
heywood on 23/10/2012 at 04:35
So what are they going to do with climate change skeptics if rising sea levels flood Venice?
Albert on 23/10/2012 at 04:44
Garrote, of course. :nono:
Phatose on 23/10/2012 at 04:51
Quote Posted by heywood
So what are they going to do with climate change skeptics if rising sea levels flood Venice?
Probably make em captains of cruise liners. Less shoreline to crash into in that case, should be safe.
