Tony_Tarantula on 29/8/2014 at 16:04
Quote Posted by icemann
If nobody you mean you don't know then you have only to read the posts in this thread to see what everyone else knows their goal is. You have only to look at Crimea to see what their end goal is. The rest of the world knew what they were up to a long time ago.
They've got larger goals than that. Keep in mind that the Russian mindset conflates geographic territory holdings with power and prosperity. It's a fallacy(because it's a function of a nation's total productive capacity, not land mass) but that isn't going to deter a country that has traditionally taken a great deal of pride in their geographic size.
Gryzemuis on 29/8/2014 at 16:14
Quote Posted by icemann
Civilian deaths are inevitable in all wars
But war itself is avoidable.
As far as I can see, the Kiev government has done nothing to avoid war. In fact, it seems they only want to intensify fighting. Hoping it turns into a full-blown war, with Nato, the EU and the US on their side. That won't happen. (As I've said before. Obama seemed to agree with me yesterday).
Quote:
And in either case, they are shelling Russians.
Ukraine killed a 1000 rebels in the last few months. I agree, inevitable. Not nice, but that's war. However, there have also been 2000+ civilians killed. And lots houses bombed to the ground.
(
https://www.google.nl/search?complete=0&q=houses%20bombed%20in%20eastern%20ukraine&gws_rd=ssl&tbm=isch)
Who's fault is it ?
Let me give you a quick recap of what happened during the last 8 months.
Russia were our pals. We went to party at the Olympics with them. Our king drank beer with Putin.
Group A of oligarchs, led by Yanukovych, were in control of the Ukraine.
Group B of oligarchs, led by Tymoshenko, didn't like that.
A "revolution of the people" was organized to overthrow the elected Yanukovych. And bring power to group B.
Summary: two groups of corrupt rich assholes fight for power. I don't care.
EU is cheering on the side, hurraying for Tymoshenko.
They promise to tighten relations with the Ukraine. In the near future the Ukraine can join the EU. They can join Nato. The EU will give large financial support. Of course, now that that is needed, the EU, the US and NATO will do nothing.
Putin has been talking about his geo-political goals before.
When the west helped Tymoshenko de-stabilize the Ukraine, nobody in western government, embassies or intellengence agencies thought of the possibility that Putin would take advantage of the opportunities.
Crimean people don't wanna belong to the Tymoshenko oligarchs in Kiev. They have a referendum. They win. Crimean is Russian now.
Although I believe that it was the Crimean people themselves who voted 90%+ in the referendum, this was a clear victory for Putin's geopolitical strategy.
So how did the west proceed ? Did they do anything smart ? Nope.
Kiev starts a civil war in the east. They don't care for civilians. They lost my support for sure now. (Doesn't mean I support Moscow. I just think Kiev is just as bad. They got the most blood on their hands).
Do the Europeans start to think about what Russia wants ? Nope. Do they talk to Putin ? Nope. Only Merkel.
As far as I understand, Putin does not want the NATO directly bordering Russia. He probably also doesn't want the EU bordering Russia. Imho, the answer is very simple: the EU will be friends with the Ukraine, but we don't plan to let them in the EU. And they don't border the North-Atlantic, so they won't be part of NATO either. Simple. Heck, I don't want Turkey in the EU either. To be honest, I didn't want Poland or Bulgary or Romania in the EU either. I wouldn't mind if the EU would be split in North-EU and South-EU. (South-EU can have Ireland too, if it was up to me). Note, I'm not a xenofoob. I just like small-scale. Always. Smaller organization are always better and more efficient, less corrupt and cheaper than large organizations.
Would that be so hard ? Promise Russia they can have their border-zone of Belarus and Ukraine ?
The Separatists could be dealth with by splitting the Ukraine into a federal state. It's still one country. You can still rule it as one country. Just have some cosmetic fluff to keep all parties happy. The US is a federal state, germany is a federal state. Who cares ? Scotland is going independent soon, while still part of the UK. Catalonia in Spain has special right. There are solutions to conflicts, which do not involve bombing the hell out of your own civilians.
So, did the EU, US and NATO push Kiev to go for a peaceful solution ? Nope. They fucked around for months. No surprise, if you look at the incompetency of Dutch politicians for example. They got no clue about what they want. And no clue about how to achieve it. Fuck members of EU-parlement like (
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQnXo2HMriQ&t=3m58s) Guy Verhofstadt and Hans van Baalen. Standing cheering on the Maiden square: "we have won, we have won". Clueless.
And now Russia is continuing to grab the opportunities given by Kiev and the EU. What will it bring ? As I said, nobody knows exactly what.
Do they want Ukraine to be part of Russia ? Do they want the Ukraine to be split in federal regions ? Do they want a sock puppet government in Kiev ? Do they want to annex only the east ? Do they want to restore the USSR ? You can speculate. You can expect the worst. But nobody knows exactly what. And that makes it harder for the west to set a good strategy. A realistic strategy should have been made 6 months ago. I think the Ukraine is an example of how the European Union does not help at all maintaining peace.
Yep, Russia is the bad guy. But Kiev is imho not much better. And the EU, US and NATO have been sleeping.
Tony_Tarantula on 29/8/2014 at 16:36
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
Who's fault is it ?
Let me give you a quick recap of what happened during the last 8 months.
Russia were our pals. We went to party at the Olympics with them. Our king drank beer with Putin.
Group A of oligarchs, led by Yanukovych, were in control of the Ukraine.
Group B of oligarchs, led by Tymoshenko, didn't like that.
A "revolution of the people" was organized to overthrow the elected Yanukovych. And bring power to group B.
Summary: two groups of corrupt rich assholes fight for power. I don't care.
EU is cheering on the side, hurraying for Tymoshenko.
They promise to tighten relations with the Ukraine. In the near future the Ukraine can join the EU. They can join Nato. The EU will give large financial support. Of course, now that that is needed, the EU, the US and NATO will do nothing.
That's a vast over simplification. There's already an "invisible war" occurring over control of the gas pipelines into Europe by the Saudis and the US.
(
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/aug/30/syria-chemical-attack-war-intervention-oil-gas-energy-pipelines)
Again, short version: US and Saudi Arabia want to build a pipeline through Syria to compete with the current monopoly held by the Russians. Russia responds by backing Syria's Assad, who then blocks any attempts at building the pipeline. USA, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC-allies begin training and equipping militant extremist sects that they hope to use to topple Assad and thus allow the pipeline to be built....attempt fails and said extremists are now attacking former US allies.
nemyax on 29/8/2014 at 16:40
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
But war itself is avoidable.
As far as I can see, the Kiev government has done nothing to avoid war.
Astute Ukrainians (look up Vladimir Rubin, for instance) saw the war coming as early as last August, way before there was any maidanning.
nickie on 29/8/2014 at 16:44
Quote Posted by Tony_Tarantula
. . . a country that has traditionally taken a great deal of pride in their geographic size.
(
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-28961152) Canada and Russia in Twitter fight over map.
bukary on 29/8/2014 at 17:42
Gryzemuis, you are TTLG's Arthur Neville Chamberlain.
Your ridiculously naive (and cynical at the same time) reasoning really amazes me. It's actually quite simple: "Fuck Ukrainians, the bad guys, and their wishes or aspirations. We should let Russians (the bad guys who are stronger) do what they want with their independent neighbours. Fuck Central and East Europe. We should flatter Russians so they do not knock on our doors. We should promise Russians that we will let them piss on other nations as long as they do not piss on us." Does it ring a bell?
It seems you want to decide what other people's fate should be, how they should behave and what decisions they should make. You deny Ukrainians the right to be a real part of so-called democratic world. And yet, at the same time, you whine about innocent Ukrainians dying and bad guys (government?) killing them. Do you really care about Ukrainians, or is it just a good opportunity to criticize NATO and western politics?
And who gives you the right to decide what's good for Ukraine, Central and East Europe or Ireland? Are Netherlands more entitled to be part of EU than, for example, Poland? Did you bring more to the cultural (literature, music, human rights etc.) or scientific (astronomy, physics, chemistry, medicine etc.) table in Europe than Poland or Ukraine? (BTW, I love Dutch/Flemish painting and Nooteboom). :p Did you provide other European countries with safety and protect them when it was necessary? Let me remind you: if Poles were not fighting for you in 17th or 20th century, you would be speaking Arabic, Russian or German now and praise Kara Mustafa, Lenin or Hitler. And you do not want us in EU? Or better: you want to donate us to Putin? How about you join this South-EU thing that you designed for other countries? It's pitiful to cover your own ass at the expense of other people. The whole idea behind the Union and all positive changes of our times is that there should be no (better or worse) South-EU and no (better or worse) North-EU, and Russia should not decide what European countries are supposed to do.
You have not learned a thing from the 20th century's history. Appeasement again? Really? Did you forget where it lead us all? Why would you keep on repeating the same mistakes...
BTW, EU is already bordering Russia.
demagogue on 1/9/2014 at 05:06
If you're fishing for a double standard, a better example for contemporary Russia would be its scorched earth tactics against Chechnya, something Putin is no stranger to. It was dealing with separatist citizens and something Russia was very sensitive for other countries to stay out of its business.
How would they have responded to Turkish soldiers and armored vehicles covertly crossing into their territory to protect them?
