Slasher on 20/2/2014 at 23:47
Last month I was pretty sure Ukraine was on track to be the next Russian oblast, but the determination of the protesters is really putting that in dispute.
demagogue on 21/2/2014 at 08:10
The most discussion I'm getting on it is an earful from Russian friends that it's probably a CIA sponsored operation and they are mostly "Westerners" they are taking orders from if not busing in to make trouble, don't believe everything you read, the EU & US are the "most corrupt" governments on the planet today (sorry Sudan) so the govt is right to keep their country from falling to the devil at any cost, the protesters started the violence & it seems police are only protecting themselves, etc, etc. :erg:
(Edit: This was the same friend that was convinced the Syrian protesters gassed their own neighborhoods, women & children, to frame the govt... Or anyway we can never be 100% sure.)
Well you can read the comments on the "(
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hvds2AIiWLA) appeal" video making the rounds right now (which is apparently pure propaganda using a "pretty young girl" to pass BS, probably an American actress...)
I understand nobody can decide Ukraine's fate for it or resolve its disputes, not the EU or the US or Russia or any other country. It has to pull its shit together like every country, and it's first the gov'ts responsibility. And I understand people shouldn't want to overthrow an elected gov't just because they hate it; they should wait for the next election. (According my Thai friend, this is the issue with the Thai riots going on right now. She hate the current govt but hates even more the people on her side that are trying to have a coup instead of respecting the democratic process. BTW, there's also rioting in Thailand and Venezuela right now.) But I also don't know enough to say that the Ukr government hasn't brought this on itself either, with what they're calling the "dictatorship laws" & throwing its legitimacy out the window.
But in any event, the reaction of the government using lethal force crossed a line that everybody is rightly pissed about. It's never something you can expect to slide by in the twitter era.
My first feeling is I want to find a neutral source that just lays out what's going on, though, what's driving the dispute, and probably why it's a hopeless situation for the foreseeable future. I know there's been a longstanding tension between the East and West of the country pulling it in two directions, and trouble with the last few elections.
PigLick on 21/2/2014 at 09:09
dema, you should start a blog because you sum shit up so well. I love reading what you have to say, cheers.
Interestingly, in Australia the Ukraine situation is getting a lot of coverage right now (probly purely because of the visual pictures of carnage) and the Thai riots also get news coverage because its in our region. The Venezuela stuff though, you wouldnt even know its happening.
faetal on 21/2/2014 at 09:29
I agree that the EU & US are the most corrupt governments in existence. The gut-wrenching part is how cleverly the corruption has been woven into the economic and political fabric of our countries. The whole thing is like a giant siphon. I can't remember who it was that said there were 2 ways to conquer a nation, through war or through debt. It may have been Adam Smith, but they were completely right. I think the only reason the US & EU nations go to war any more is to transfer funds from the public into the coffers of the military and industrial suppliers.
LoLion on 21/2/2014 at 09:33
As I see it the main problem with Ukrainian opposition is that they insist on repeating the mistakes of the Orange revolution of 2004-2005 ie calling for new elections as if the elections could actually solve the problem the Ukraine has. The thing is that while the western Ukrainians stand more or less united against Yanukovich and for “European orientation” of the country they are now even more fragmented than they were 10 years ago (back then there were 2 major factions/leaders, now there are 3 one of which is pretty much a fascist). On the other hand the east Ukraine appears to be more or less unified in support of Yanukovich and the “Russian orientation.”
Yanukovich (or whoever might replace him at the head of the Regions Party) has a decent shot at winning the elections and even if he loses the pro-western government is likely to fall apart like the Yuschenko & Timoshenkova government did, thus allowing the Regions Party to regain power again. And the cycle might start anew then.
The obvious solution would be to divide the country, however that is something the western Ukrainian elites seem to refuse to even consider. I know quite a few western Ukrainian academicians and diplomats that I used to work with when they taught, worked or researched in Prague and all of them always get mad when I mention this option… usually mentioning that the eastern Ukraine was cleansed of actual Ukrainians during the Holodomor and resettled with Russians, thus letting the eastern Ukraine join Russia would mean that Stalin actually won. Well… I guess that Stalin won indeed and elections wont get Ukraine anywhere.
Ostriig on 21/2/2014 at 11:37
Quote Posted by demagogue
The most discussion I'm getting on it is an earful from Russian friends that it's probably a CIA sponsored operation and they are mostly "Westerners" they are taking orders from if not busing in to make trouble, don't believe everything you read, the EU & US are the "most corrupt" governments on the planet today (sorry Sudan) so the govt is right to keep their country from falling to the devil at any cost, the protesters started the violence & it seems police are only protecting themselves, etc, etc. :erg:
(Edit: This was the same friend that was convinced the Syrian protesters gassed their own neighborhoods, women & children, to frame the govt... Or anyway we can never be 100% sure.)
And I imagine they're probably not wrong on the first count, I think it would be naive to imagine that the West isn't trying to manuever the Ukraine back towards the EU after failing to formally enrol it in the Eastern Partnership project, and, seeing as there is widespread support - speaking as an Eastern European myself, don't have linkage on hand - for the belief that Europe and the US had an active hand in sparking and fuelling the events in 1989 in the region, I would hardly be surprised if that were the case now again. Also bear in mind that unlike '89, in this case you have actual opposition parties with known links in the West - I don't think it was purely on humanitarian grounds that the EU was insisting on Tymoshenko's release, and if I recall correctly, Klitschko's party has observer status with the European People's Party.
However, it's ludicrous to claim that the current confrontations are a "product" of Western agencies' meddling, simply due to the scope of the unrest. We're not talking about a handful of agitators planted to rile up a few dozens or even hundreds of ecologists against shale gas, we're seeing tens of thousands of people in the streets, putting their lives at risk, which is something that couldn't happen in the absence of broad popular discontent.
Quote:
My first feeling is I want to find a neutral source that just lays out what's going on, though, what's driving the dispute, and probably why it's a hopeless situation for the foreseeable future.
Do you really need one, though? It's another geopolitical confrontation between the EU/NATO and Russia. More by proxy, this time, with either side relying on the specific financial and political interests of the ruling elites inside the country, and banking on regional popular support, rather than force of arms.
The Soviet Union fell and people got the impression that that was the end of it, and Russia's just another country now, no match for the united West, etc. Yeah, it's just another country. A very large and powerful one. The two decades that followed saw a lull in Russian influence around the world, but since Putin latest return to office, Moscow's been on the offense again and getting better at it, to the misfortune of its Eastern European neighbours, at least. Moscow didn't fall two decades ago, it just tripped.
I'm really hoping that, given the latest developments, the Obama administration reviews its lax policy in Eastern Europe and towards Russia in general. Cause in other cases Putin's been running circles around them, and the EU's made a complete mess of the Eastern Partnership.
Quote Posted by faetal
I agree that the EU & US are the most corrupt governments in existence.
Look, dude, don't take this the wrong way, I most often appreciate your contributions around here as reasonable and thought out, but you need to stop grinding this anti-capitalist, anti-Western axe of yours every change you get. The US and the EU are the most corrupt governments in existence, seriously? You must not know much about, you know, other places. And you're stating it
in this thread? Just think about the context for a moment.
Quote Posted by LoLion
The obvious solution would be to divide the country, however that is something the western Ukrainian elites seem to refuse to even consider.
Even if the East and West parts of the Ukraine could agree to an "amiable divorce", would Russia go for it? Recently, the Voice of Russia propaganda machine accused Hungary and Romania of having already "divided" western Ukraine amongst themselves, and unless I'm mistaken, Moscow's guaranteed the borders of the Ukrainian state back in '94 in exchange for returning their nukes.
And what about the West? If you look next door to the Ukraine, at Moldova, the EU and the US seem dead set on maintaining the country's artificial borders, even though splitting Transnistria and Gagauzia from it would be the most beneficial approach to facillitate European integration. The US Assistant Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland, even went so far as to diplomatically backhand the Romanian president when he started talking about a potential reunification, stating that the US fully support Moldova's sovereignty. Some EU officials and the Moldovan PM have had similar reactions. So far I've been getting the impression that no one wants to start carving new borders in that entire area, no matter how direly they might be needed.
faetal on 21/2/2014 at 11:44
Quote Posted by Ostriig
Look, dude, don't take this the wrong way, I most often appreciate your contributions around here as reasonable and thought out, but you need to stop grinding this anti-capitalist, anti-Western axe of yours every change you get. The US and the EU are the most corrupt governments in existence, seriously? You must not know much about, you know, other places. And you're stating it
in this thread? Just think about the context for a moment.
Apologies. After posting, I did think maybe not the most appropriate time to go on a tangent. I stick by what I said, but won't go into it further in this thread.
(Just for posterity, I am neither anti-west or anti-capitalist)
Ostriig on 21/2/2014 at 12:31
Fair enough, I don't wanna press the point either. I take back what I said about about you being anti-etc, it was an assumption and I don't know your motives, my bad.
faetal on 21/2/2014 at 12:34
De nada :)
PigLick on 21/2/2014 at 12:55
touchy subject right. My son has a friend at school whose parents are from Ukraine, they play terraria on steam together. Its all too easy to form an opinion on this, even if you do think you know a whole lot more than other people do.
Lets just wait and see what happens, there aint nothing to be done anyway.
My sons friend (his best friend actually) parents have lots of family there. None of us are politicians, we cant really know what is going on can we?
