icemann on 9/4/2014 at 08:18
Quote Posted by Nicker
I think we already covered this. It was in your latest memo from Lubyanka.
The unsubtle plan is to use KGB operatives to destabilise the Ukraine, before it can consolidate any gains made through the recent revolution, then come to the "rescue" of Russian minorities.
Russia has already warned Ukraine not to send troops east to deal with the KGB shit disturbers or Russia will provoke a civil war.
And here we go again. Now to wait for the Russian tanks to roll in eventually and for the "referendums" to begin. All in the name of democracy.
nemyax on 9/4/2014 at 09:22
Why use tanks if they can simply shut off the gas? These are civilised times. And, for the laugh, sue Ukraine for debt (dating back to when the price was still reasonable and Gazprom hadn't got all bloody-minded on Ukraine). That would likely bring about some interesting change in rhetoric.
As for FSB involvement in the riots, it's possible, but not really necessary. For the most marginalised people in the east (the ones that bother seizing buildings, declaring republics and what-not), Russian TV propaganda is quite enough to spur them into action. Russian state TV has been democratically censored in Ukraine, but the east can still pick it up.
icemann on 9/4/2014 at 12:19
Quote Posted by nemyax
Why use tanks if they can simply shut off the gas?
And last time they were faced with that decision, which one did they pick. Hmm. I'll let you sit and have a think about that one.
nemyax on 9/4/2014 at 12:33
Quote Posted by icemann
last time they were faced with that decision
They were never faced with that decision. The gas card (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_dispute) was played when Ukraine ran into debt. And the soldiers bullied Crimea off a coup-stricken Kiev, while they still could, when Russia stood to lose access to Sevastopol.
These were never two alternatives in a single situation.
demagogue on 9/4/2014 at 13:05
Gas is about the only industry Russia has left that isn't peanuts. Cutting it completely off to its biggest markets in Europe just to score a few political points sounds like shooting itself in the foot in the long run, to say the least.
nemyax on 9/4/2014 at 13:09
Quote Posted by demagogue
Cutting it completely off to its biggest markets in Europe just to score a few political points sounds like shooting itself in the foot in the long run, to say the least.
True, but cutting it off for non-paying customers and leaving it on for paying ones is a different matter.
EDIT: It appears that Kiev has just beaten Mr Miller to the valve, cut off its own share of the gas and, ironically, is making demands. It gets curiouser and curiouser by the hour.
Specter on 9/4/2014 at 15:13
Quote Posted by demagogue
The other point she made was that the main theme of Russians in Ukraine is neglect, Ukrainians suspect them & there was a recent row where they prohibited them to use Russian, in classrooms IIRC, and until recently Russia ignored them too. So she's not surprised they're making so much noise, just to get recognition after so much recent neglect.
Yeah, that sounds like the typical cycle that goes on in that part of the world. Estonia does, and had done to it, the same type of thing with language. Its another reason why I think Ukraine with its current ethnic make-up is too broken to function.
242 on 9/4/2014 at 16:56
Quote:
Posted by demagogue
The other point she made was that the main theme of Russians in Ukraine is neglect, Ukrainians suspect them & there was a recent row where they prohibited them to use Russian, in classrooms IIRC
What?
As Ukrainian, personally I don't accuse ordinary Russians about the military agression, but I believe Putin is a half-done hitler. I don't accuse Russians because I understand why most of them (according to sociologic polls in Russia) supported the agression, I saw their TV programs about happenings in Ukraine and I was shocked about goebbels-like lie about "opression and killings" of Russian-speaking people. BTW, part of those living in Eastern Ukraine also watch PutinTV, so they also are somewhat zombified and fear that mythical "USA mercenaries from Western Ukraine" want to conquer them :)
In this case, Putin just got VERY angry after sudden fall of Yanukovych with whom he already had bargained about not signing EU Assosiation Agreement a few months back, and most probably something else, and decided at least to "return" Crimea under pretence of "protection of Russian-speaking people". Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's the first case of annexation in Europe since WWII.
Also, I must add that I'm still afraid and nervous about what Putin may do next. We wait for elections on May, 25, any pro-Putin candidate hasn't any chance this time, so I think he may try to seriously hamper the elections.
icemann on 9/4/2014 at 17:46
Well be watching the areas where the pro-Russia protests are occurring at present. If things follow the same sequence as last time, give it a few weeks and you'll have your answer. Not saying that that is what I want to happen, but just saying.
I'm just wondering what the end goal is behind it all. And I'm not just talking about Ukraine.
Time will tell I guess.
TV over here isn't covering much about Ukraine anymore, besides some brawl that resulted in parliament yesterday. So much of what I'm going by is from what I've been reading here.
