icemann on 13/4/2014 at 09:16
Several more government buildings in Eastern towns of Ukraine were captured by "Russian militia's" today.
And so it begins. Following the exact same pattern.
We didn't have to wait long it seems. Well they waited 4 days this time round atleast.
Muzman on 13/4/2014 at 10:18
Party like it's 1939.
There has to be something we can learn from that history to diffuse this. I don't know enough about the specifics of the present situation really, but the problem back then seemed to be it was trivial to rile up the Sudeten Germans with nationalist fervor. Add a few Nazi backed agitators and you're gold. Are the eastern Ukranians the same? I have no idea, of course.
The tendency now would be to not 'appease' under any circumstances 'because look what happened last time' etc. But it seems like larger forces butting heads over this are only going to make the division worse regardless of who caves, since people already believe that's what it's all about anyway. That can only go Putin's (apparent) way, ultimately. Unless NATO moves in to guarantee Uks borders or something, which again proves every conspiracy Russians have heard.
There's got to be some piece of Ukrainian political genius to keep this down without simply replacing one lot of dogged nationalism with another over and over.
demagogue on 13/4/2014 at 12:43
This has the flavor more of settling old business than the start of an imperial adventure like the wars of aggression and expansion of WWII and the Cold War. That wouldn't make it too much better, but at least hold out the hope that it's not the start of a habit. But what do I know?
Muzman on 14/4/2014 at 03:59
Most of early Nazi German expansion was settling old business too, really, with additional long term goals in the east down the road. As much as we may not see Putin as Hitler, and I don't either, I expect the response is likely to be pretty absolute given that history. Don't give in to the first demand, rather than appeasing and waiting for the second.
While the staring down takes place the tension and agitation just produces more "ethnic Russians in need of our protection". Which is exactly what he needs/wants, from the looks of it, with votes and so forth of various levels of veracity and legality. And so it goes.
It's unclear whether or not this stuff will work yet. The demands for votes to join Russia do seem to be gaining strength though. There's got to be some way to diffuse this internally, he says optimistically, as I think if it keeps following that same old script then it only goes Putin's way.
icemann on 14/4/2014 at 05:36
And today the Ukraine government gave the militia's till Monday to leave the buildings and towns they've taken. After that their sending in the troops and it's on like donkey kong.
So by tomorrow could be civil war. They have absolutely zero chance against the combined strength of Russia's military.
Now to the question:
There has to be something we can learn from that history to diffuse this.
Imo, the only real stopping solution would be if the UN would actually step in and do something. The problem is that any action needs unilateral support of all UN nations which includes Russia. And since Russia isn't going to vote in favor of action against itself, that's never going to happen.
Seems quite stupid to me, the way they have the whole UN voting system set up.
Until all the countries unite against Russia (not going to happen for now), this will just continue.
demagogue on 14/4/2014 at 07:37
Well the last time we dealt with an expansionist Russia in the Cold War, we turned to China to put on some pressure with the whole triangulation strategy, but thanks to Obama's turn to Asia we're about as alienated from China now as we've ever been for a long time. I'd imagine the US itself doing about as much as it did for Georgia in 2008, which is about nothing. (Edit: It'd only play into Russia's hands for the US to have any role at all anyway though. The whole thing would be much better off being Ukraine's own mess to clean up without "intervention".) Europe seems pretty useless in this situation. If it comes to arms, I can't think off-hand how it plays out. Simple napkin math on RUS vs UKR looks like UKR either splits or half accedes to RUS.
BTW, I said it's not like the past, but there's still the whole Iron Curtain logic (Lebensraum is kind of tangentially related) that's a very old and familiar story that never seems to go away. Illiberal countries don't like seem to like unfriendly (liberal) countries bordering them, so like to have some cushion between them and the unfriendlies, to push them as far out as they can, which is why China seems to tolerate a whacko North Korea just so it's not bordering Western-friendly S. Korea, and Russia evidently would prefer a Russian friendly Ukraine between it and the rest of Europe. It's supposed to be the reason the USSR held on to Eastern Europe in the late 40s, to distance itself from a possibly remilitarizing Germany and then later American influence. That script still seems to be around.
icemann on 15/4/2014 at 04:46
And the deadline came and went, and the Ukraine government didn't do a thing. So it looks like the Eastern half of the country is in Russian hands now. Now to await the referendums.
The US + UN have decided to sit back and watch since neither wants a war.
Now to await what happens next.
Slasher on 15/4/2014 at 05:15
Obama couldn't even drum up support for cruise missile strikes against Assad when chemical weapons were involved. Some of that was undoubtedly partisan posturing, but the country seems much more weary of armed conflict than it was eleven years ago. These are not the "bring 'em on" days of Iraqi Freedom when we proudly denounced anti-war types and dished out Freedom Fries.
Iraq and Afghanistan have been costly in money and political capital. It will probably be years before the US can get an honest war boner on again.
nemyax on 15/4/2014 at 07:35
Quote Posted by icemann
And the deadline came and went, and the Ukraine government didn't do a thing.
They sort of tried: they sent troops in. Ever seen a tank getting taken out of action by a car and a group of unarmed louts? (
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5enoW2Y1sRI#t=129)
There were defections among the "counter-terrorist" forces. And everyone is reluctant to open fire, including the government (they might lose their last chance for EU money if they did). Goes to show how government-y that government really is.
